Disasters and Political Engagement: Evidence from Urban and Rural India


[Data Analysis]

Abstract:  How do disasters reshape citizen-state relations? While disasters can undermine social cohesion and diminish political trust among survivors, they also create opportunities for citizens to make new demands on governments. This project examines how the intersection of climate risk and political incentives can transform accountability mechanisms in contexts of limited state capacity, such as urban slums and remote villages. Drawing on an original survey of 2,000 households, 18 focus groups, and 75 in-depth interviews with citizens, civil society activists, and government officials in two Indian states, we find that disasters increase political activism and claim-making by citizens. Specifically, higher levels of cumulative exposure to slow-onset events such as recurrent floods are associated with greater protest participation, increased involvement in community affairs, greater engagement with campaign activities during local elections,  and stronger demands for public goods. While our cross-sectional observational design does not allow us to track government responsiveness over time, our findings provide suggestive evidence that recurrent disaster exposure can catalyze collective action and create pressures for greater accountability from the state.